Liberals’ Hepfner may flip NDP seat on Hamilton Mountain; parties hold other Hamilton ridings

The Liberals’ Lisa Hepfner and the New Democratic Party’s Malcolm Allen might go to bed not knowing who will represent Hamilton Mountain on Parliament Hill.

At 1:54 a.m. on Tuesday, Hepfner led Allen by 519 votes as she tried to break the NDP’s five-election hold on the riding. Only 16 of 155 polls had not reported, and over 3,000 mail-in ballots remain to be counted on Tuesday.

The race is one of two in the Hamilton area which had a robust three-way race, with Conservative Party of Canada hopeful Al Miles about 3,800 votes adrift of Hepfner.

Meantime, the parties remained the same, but the member of Parliament will be new in Flamborough—Glanbrook and Hamilton East—Stoney Creek. The CPC’s Dan Muys was elected in F-G, while longtime Hamilton city councillor Chad Collins has been declared elected in the latter riding.

Meantime, Matthew Green has kept downtown Hamilton a bastion of NDP orange, and erstwhile Liberal cabinet minister Filomenia Tassi has held her seat in the western part of the city.

Mail-in ballots were to be counted on Tuesday. Most major broadcasters declared a Liberal minority government around 10 p.m. ET.

InSauga is providing live election results. Here is a survey of the area ridings.

Hamilton Mountain

Both Hepfner (34.0 per cent) and Allen (32.0) are in a tight race. About two-thirds of votes in the riding typically go to the Liberals and the NDP. However, the NDP have won the seat in five consecutive elections.

Hepfner, a longtime journalist at CHCH-TV, is a first-time candidate.

Allen was an MP in Niagara Region from 2008 to ’15 before losing his seat. He was second in Niagara Centre in 2019 before throwing his hat into the ring in Hamilton.

Miles’s 25.0 per cent support is in line with CPC turnout on the Mountain in recent elections.

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

Collins, who was a city councillor for more than 25 years, is moving up two levels of government, as the Liberal has been declared elected with 37.0 per cent over the CPC’s Ned Kuruc (28.0) and the NDP’s Nick Milanovic (25.0). That works out to a nearly 4,000-vote margin.

The riding had the highest support of any People’s Party of Canada candidate, as Mario Ricci received about 8 per cent support. Other PPC candidates pulled between 4 to 7 per cent support.

The lakeside riding went up for grabs when Bob Bratina opted not to run again for the Liberals after breaking with the party over its support of light-rail transit.

Flamborough-Glanbrook

The riding’s been called for Muys, who had a tight-ish margin over the Liberals à la his former boss, David Sweet, in the 2019 election.

Muys has earned 40 per cent support, good for a 2,600-vote margin over the Liberals’ Vito Sgro, who received 35 per cent. The NDP’s Lorne Newick has 16.0 per cent support.

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

Tassi was elected with a double-digit lead. She received 44 per cent support, putting her in front of the CPC’s Bert Laranjo (29) by more than 8,100 votes. The NDP challenger, lawyer Roberto Henriquez, has earned 21.0 per cent, marking the first time that the New Democrats have broken out of the teens since the riding was formed three elections ago.

Hamilton Centre

It was easy being Green at the ballot box. While he will be the lone NDP repping Hamilton on Parliament Hill, Green was the first declared winner in Hamilton after receiving 48 per cent support — the most of any candidate in the area. His margin will likely be well over 7,000 votes.

Liberal challenger Margaret Bennett pulled about 26.0 per cent, with the CPC’s Fabian Grenning at 16. Those are typical numbers for both parties in Hamilton Centre.

It’s the second consecutive election where Green has had a 20-point margin over the Liberals.